Yapay Zeka ile insanlığı bekleyen asıl tehlike

Yapay Zeka üzerine çalışmalarıyla tanınan Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü öğretim üyeleri Prof. Dr. Levent Akın, Prof. Dr. Ethem Alpaydın ve Prof. Dr. Cem Say, robotlar ve gelecek üzerine gündeme gelen son tartışmalar ışığında Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Kurumsal İletişim ekibinin sorularını yanıtladılar. 

Yapay zeka konusuna önemli açıklamalar yapan bilim insanları, gelecek için asıl tehlikenin canavar robotlardan ziyade, insanlığı bekleyen işsizlik olduğunu belirttiler. Hoş sohbet ortamda geçen ropörtajın tam metni şöyle;

“Günümüzün en önemli tartışma konularından biri de Yapay Zekâ. Gün geçmiyor ki bu konu üzerine yeni bir tartışma başlatılmasın… Yapay Zekâ konusunda insanların hayatlarını kolaylaştırmasından tutun, robotların insan eliyle oluşturulmuş her şeyi ele geçirmesine kadar birbirine tamamen zıt senaryolar üretiliyor. Robotlar sayesinde geleceğin daha rahat ve kolay olacağına inananlarla felaket senaryoları yazanlar Yapay Zekâ konusunda sık sık karşı karşıya geliyor.

 

Biz de bu tartışmalar üzerine Boğaziçi Üniversitesi’nde Yapay Zekâ üzerine çalışan bilim insanlarına hem son tartışmaları hem de Yapay Zekâ ile ilgili genel görüşlerini sorduk. Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü öğretim üyeleri Prof. Dr. Levent Akın, Prof. Dr. Ethem Alpaydın ve Prof. Dr. Cem Say son tartışmalar ışığında sorularımızı yanıtladılar.

Son günlerde yerli-yabancı basında izlediğimiz tartışmalar genellikle yapay zekânın insanlık için tehlike arz edebileceğine dikkat çekiyor ve hayli spekülatif yorumlar içeriyor. Son olarak Facebook’un geliştirdiği iki Yapay Zekâ’nın kendi aralarında özel bir dil geliştirmesi sonucunda Facebook’un bu projenin fişini çekmesiyle konu yeniden gündeme geldi. Öncelikle ‘’Yapay Zekâ tehlikeli mi tehlikesiz mi’’ tartışmasında sizin görüşleriniz nelerdir?

Levent Akın: Öncelikle bu öykünün uydurulmuş olduğunun bilinmesi gerekiyor. Olayın aslı şöyle: Araştırmacılar insanlarla pazarlık yapabilecek bir Yapay Zekâ programı geliştirmek amacıyla yaptıkları bu çalışmada öğrenme sürecini hızlandırmak için aynı amaçla tasarlanmış iki yapay zekâ programını birbirleriyle İngilizce kullanarak pazarlık yaptırmışlar ve başarımlarını ödüllendirerek giderek daha iyi bir program elde etmeye çalışmışlardır. Çalışmada programların kullandıkları dilin İngilizce gramer kurallarına uymasını ödüllendirecek bir kural olmadığı için zamanla programlar kelimeleri insanların kullanmadığı şekilde kullanmaya başlamışlar. Bu durumda, çalışmada geliştirilecek sistemin insanlarla pazarlık edeceği için İngilizce kullanmayı zorunlu hale getirecek bir kural konarak çalışmaya devam edilmiş ve proje başarıyla sonuçlanmıştır. Yani fiş çekilmesi gibi bir durum olmamıştır. Yapay Zekânın kendi başına tehlikesi yoktur. Tehlike bence her araçta olduğu gibi kötü amaçla kullanılmasında olur. Bunu denetlemenin bir yolu Yapay Zekâ sistemlerine bir etik üst sistem yerleştirilerek, Yapay Zekâ sistemlerinin kendi kararlarını değerlendirmeden geçirerek uygulayıp, uygulamamaya karar vermesidir.

Ethem Alpaydın: Bu konu bence çok abartıldı. Üyesi olduğum Yapay Zekâ üstüne bilimsel tartışma listelerinde bu haberi görmedim. Sansasyon olsun diye abarttı genel medya konuyu ve sanki Yapay Zekâ kontrolden çıkmış gibi lanse edildi. Benim anladığıma göre programlar hata vermeye başladığı için kapatılmış.

Cem Say: Facebook o projenin fişini filan çekmedi. Pazarlık yapma konusunda kendi kopyalarıyla antrenman yaparken İngilizce kurallarını gözetmesi şartını koymayı unuttukları program kendince gramerden sapınca hatalarını fark edip antrenmanı durdurdular ve yeniden, bu kez düzgün İngilizce için de puan vererek baştan eğittiler. Tehlike söz konusu bile olmadı. İnsanların işlerini ellerinden alma gibi ekonomik sonuçlarla karşılaştırıldığında Yapay Zekânın yakın zamanda varoluşsal bir tehdit oluşturma riskini ihmal edilebilir derecede küçük görüyorum.

Çeşitli yorumlara göre bilim insanları, araştırmacılar bugünkü dünyamızda örneğin iklim değişikliğine bağlı yaşanan felaketleri öngörebilselerdi Endüstri Devrimi’nin hiç yaşanmaması gerekirdi. Nitekim Elon Musk (Tesla Motors CEO’su) Yapay Zekânın insanlığın bugüne dek kurup geliştirdiği medeniyet için varoluşsal bir risk olduğunu ve günün birinde robotlar tarafından yok edilene kadar bu konuda nasıl bir önlem alacağımızı bilmediğimizi söyledi. Facebook’un CEO’su Mark Zuckenberg ise Musk’a karşı çıktı. Durum hakkında felaket senaryolarının vahametine kapılmadan ve aşırı iyimser olmadan bu tartışmadan nasıl bir çıkarım yapmak mümkün sizce?

Levent Akın: Geliştirilen her teknolojinin getirdikleri yanında her zaman az ya da çok zararlı olabilecek yan etkileri de olabilir. Burada önemli olan bunların tartılıp bu teknolojiyi kullanmaya değip değmeyeceğine karar verilmesidir. Bu tartışmada tarafların Yapay Zekâ deyince aynı şeyi kastedip kastetmedikleri de belli değil. Elon Musk, yapay genel zekâ olarak adlandırılan, insan eşdeğeri sistemleri kastediyor olmalı. Bugün kullanılan tekniklerden yola çıkarak böyle bir sistem geliştirmek mümkün değil. Günümüzde Yapay Zekâ bir araç olarak kullanılmaktadır. Her uygulamanın da amacı bellidir. Geliştirilen Yapay Zekâ ürünü amacının dışında bir şey yapamaz yani satranç oynayan bir program tıpta tanı koymada kullanılamaz. Ancak tasarım ve programlama hataları durumunda iyi satranç oynayamayabilir. Bugünkü teknolojide olacak en kötü durum bence geliştirilen Yapay Zekâ araçlarının yaygın şekilde işsizliğe yol açmasıdır. Ancak düzgün bir planlama ile bunun önüne geçmek mümkündür. Filmlerde gördüğümüz canavarlaşan robot, program vb.nin bugünkü teknolojiyle yapılması mümkün değildir. Önemli olan bilgili bir şekilde toplumun yararına doğru kararların verilmesidir.

Ethem Alpaydın: Her biri milyarlarca dolar eden ve borsada sürekli işlem gören şirketlerin yöneticilerinin tartışmaları bilimsel olarak her zaman çok değerli olmayabilir; bence ikisi de konuyu kendi şirketinin bakış açısına göre değerlendiriyor. Robotların bizi yok edebileceği bir dünyaya çok uzağız, bundan bence şimdilik korkmaya gerek yok. Ama görülüyor ki teknolojik gelişmeler sonucunda (ki bu yalnız Yapay Zekâ yüzünden değil) bildiğimiz mesleklerin çoğu yakın zamanda ortadan kalkacak; bu da şimdiye dek görülenden çok daha yüksek oranlarda işsizliğe neden olabilir ve bu durum sonucunda yaygın kıtlıklar, kitlesel göçlerin çoğalması  gibi çok kötü sonuçlar ortaya çıkabilir. Bundan gerçekten korkmamız ve önlem almaya çalışmamız gerekiyor. Örneğin; yaşam boyu eğitim programlarını artırmak bunun için bir çözüm olabilir. Yani önümüzde zeki robotların dünyayı ele geçirmesinden çok daha önemli riskler var ve bilim-kurgu senaryolarına kendimizi kaptırmak yerine böyle gerçek sorunlara odaklanırsak daha iyi yaparız.

Cem Say: Bu tartışmadan yapılacak çıkarım, Yapay Zekâ’ya yön veren iki dev şirketin sahiplerinden en az birinin onun potansiyeli hakkında çok yanılmakta olduğudur. Sanayi Devrimi’nin sonuçlarını öngörebilseydik bile ondan vazgeçebileceğimizi çok sanmıyorum, çünkü Sanayi Devrimi’nin parlak avantajları da var.

Google, Facebook, Amazon, IBM ve Microsoft gibi şirketler Yapay Zekânın toplum yararına olması yönünde aralarında işbirliği anlaşması kaleme aldılar. Amerikan Hükümeti de 2016’da sürücüsüz arabalar için kurallar standardı  yayınladı. Şirketler ve hükümetler arasında Yapay Zekânın denetim altına alınması konusunda böyle bir konsensüs ortamı mevcut ancak temel eleştiriler ve sorular tüm bu düzenlemelerin nasıl uygulamaya konulacağında yoğunlaşıyor. Bir robotun bir insana zarar vermesi halinde suçlu kim olacak? Robotu üreten şirket mi, yazılımcı mı, tasarımcı mı? Yakın bir tarihte Yapay Zekâ polisi, Yapay Zekâ yargıcı gibi yeni tanımlarla, mesleklerle mi tanışacağız?

Levent Akın: Yapay Zekâ hukuku konusunda dünyada çok sayıda çalışma yapılıyor. Bu konudaki en önemli çalışmalardan birisi AB’de birkaç yıl önce yapılan RoboLaw adlı bir araştırma projesidir. Bu projenin önerileri AB Parlamentosuna Yapay Zeka ile ilgili yasa yaparken başvuru kaynağı olması amacıyla sunuldu. Bugünkü kapasiteleriyle robotlar tam özerk kişiler sayılmadıklarından sorumlu tutulmuyorlar. Olayın oluşumuna göre yapılacak incelemede kimin kusuru olduğu belirlenecek. Duruma göre geliştiren, ya da kullanan kişi sorumlu olacak. Bu nedenle Yapay Zeka konusunda uzman yargıçlar ve avukatlar olması yakın gelecekte mümkün ama Yapay Zeka polisi bence hala bilimkurgu alanına giriyor. Ancak geliştirilen Yapay Zeka sistemleri için bir takım denetim mekanizmaları oluşturulursa yapay zekâ denetçiliği diye yeni bir meslek olabilir.

Ethem Alpaydın: Bir Yapay Zeka sisteminin kendi hukuki ya da etik sorumluluğu olacak bir benlik olması olasılığı bana çok uzak görünüyor. O zamana dek YZ sistemi de, ister yazılım, ister donanım olsun, bir şirket tarafından üretiliyor olacak ve tüm sorumluluklar da o şirketin olacak. Şu anda da otomatik karar veren sistemler hayatımızda var, uçaklardaki otomatik pilotlar örneğin; onlarda bir sorun çıkarsa üreten şirket sorumlu oluyor. Yine de örneğin sürücüsüz bir arabanın piyasaya çıkmadan önce insanların şu anda geçtiği ehliyet sınavından çok daha ciddi olarak sınanacağına, tek tük sorunlar olsa da sonuçta trafik kazalarının azalacağına ve ulaşımın onlar sayesinde çok daha kolay, hızlı ve ucuz olacağına eminim.

Cem Say: Bir asansörün bir insana zarar vermesi halinde sorumluluk nasıl paylaştırılıyorsa öyle olacak. Yapay Zekâ polis veya yargıç olup suçlu insanlarla mücadele edebilir, ama kendisinin işlediği hatalardan “suçlu” olduğu söylenebilir mi? Kısa vadede buna hazır olduğumuzu düşünmüyorum.

Özellikle tehlike boyutu düşünüldüğünde teknoloji açısından akla ilk gelen sürücüsüz arabalar oluyor. Nitekim bu tür arabaların çok basit yollarla ‘hack’lenmesi artık önemli bir güvenlik meselesi halini aldı. Hatta iş öyle bir boyuta ulaşmış durumda ki, Youtube’da sürücüsüz arabaları hackleme yolları üzerine videolar yayınlanabiliyor. Bu boyutuyla Yapay Zekânın sınırları ne olmalı sizce, bu konuda ne düşünüyorsunuz?

Levent Akın: Günümüzde ağa bağlı her türlü aracın hack’lenmesi mümkün. Yakınlarda milyonlarca kamera, fırın, buzdolabı gibi nesnelerin interneti aracı hack’lenerek çeşitli sitelere saldırı amacıyla kullanıldı. Bu nedenle bu Yapay Zeka ürünlerinin tasarımında hack edilmesini imkânsız hale getirecek önlemler alınması ya da en azından hack edildiğinde tehlikeli bir sonucun ortaya çıkmasının engellenmesi gerekiyor. Bunun Yapay Zekâyı sınırlanmasını gerektirecek bir yönü yok. Sonuçta Yapay Zekâ ürünleri, program olsun, robot olsun insanlar tarafından kullanılacak, sınırlama olacaksa belki kullanım alanlarında olabilir.

Ethem Alpaydın: Arabanın hack’lenebilmesi Yapay Zeka ile ilgili bir sorun değil, güvenlik sorunu. Şu anda da sürücüsüz arabalardan çok daha kritik iş yapan birçok bilgisayar sistemi “hack’lenebiliyor ama onları kullanmaktan vazgeçmiyoruz, daha güvenli yapmaya çalışıyoruz. Şu anda kullandığımız arabalar da çalınabiliyor örneğin, ama bu olasılık arabaların kullanılmasını engellemiyor.

Cem Say: Daha da akıllı olmalı ki kolayca hack’lenemesin. Araba gibi yaşamsal sistemlerin yazılımlarını şimdikinden çok daha sıkı denetimlere tabi tutmakla görevli resmi bir organ gerekebilir.

Eklemek istedikleriniz…

Levent Akın: Benim eklemek istediğim başka bir konu yok.

Cem Say: Korkunun ecele faydası yok!

Ethem Alpaydın: Yapay Zeka tartışmasına nereden baktığınız da önemli. Belki bizim Türkiye’de yurt dışında yapılan tartışmanın aynısını yapmak yerine Yapay Zeka’nın olası fayda ve risklerini de kendi özel koşullarımıza bağlı değerlendirmemiz gerekiyor. Japonya gibi doğum oranının görece düşük olduğu bir ülkede kollu ve bacaklı, insanın yerini doldurabilecek robotlar yapmak iyi bir fikir olabilir, ama Türkiye gibi işsizliğin zaten yüksek olduğu ve nüfusun hep arttığı bir ülkede Yapay Zekayı insanın yerini almak için değil iş gücünün kalifikasyonunu artırmak için kullanmaya çalışmak bence daha iyi bir fikir olacaktır. Örneğin, gerçek zamanda konuşmayı bir dilden ötekine çeviren bir yazılım, yabancı dil bilmeyen insanlarımızı turizm sektöründe çalışmaya daha uygun hale getirebilir ve Türkiye için böyle bir yaklaşım örneğin rehber robotlar yapmaya çalışmaktan daha iyi bir çözüm olabilir.”

 

Kaynak: Boğaziçi Üniversitesi Kurumsal İletişim Ofisi

 

 

Ahmet Doğan
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Ahmet Doğan

Araştırmacı - Yazar
Elektrik - Elektronik Mühendisliğinden 2014'te mezun oldu. Aynı alanda Yüksek Lisans eğitimine devam ederken, aynı zamanda ULUSLARARASI İLİŞKİLER lisans bölümünü okumaktadır. İnsan Hakları alanında ve Mülteci alanında Uluslararası bir Sivil Toplum Kuruluşunda çalışmaktadır.
Ahmet Doğan
Follow Me

Ahmet Doğan

Araştırmacı - Yazar Elektrik - Elektronik Mühendisliğinden 2014'te mezun oldu. Aynı alanda Yüksek Lisans eğitimine devam ederken, aynı zamanda ULUSLARARASI İLİŞKİLER lisans bölümünü okumaktadır. İnsan Hakları alanında ve Mülteci alanında Uluslararası bir Sivil Toplum Kuruluşunda çalışmaktadır.

Yapay Zeka ile insanlığı bekleyen asıl tehlike” için 166 yorum

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