Genç İşsizliği

Ülkemizde hızla artan genç işsizliğine dikkat çekmek isteyen Prof. Dr. Erhan Erkut, kendi kişisel websitesinde bir analiz yayınladı. Analiz sonucunda çarpıcı verileri paylaşan Erkut, genç işsizliğe karşı alınabilecek önlemleri de anlatıyor.

İşte Prof. Dr. Erhan Erkut’un yayınlanan yazısının tam metni:

“19 Temmuz 2017’de Habertürk’te genç işsizliğini konu alan bir canlı yayına katıldım. Yayından sonra bu konudaki düşüncelerimi toparlayan bir blog yazısı yazmaya karar verdim. Bu yazının üniversite tercihi yapmaya ve kariyerlerini planlamaya çalışan öğrencilere yararlı olabileceğini düşünüyorum.

Canlı yayını tetikleyen veri, Türkiye’de genç işsizliğinin %16’dan %19.8’e çıkmış olması idi. Önce ülkedeki işsizlik rakamlarını (biraz yuvarlayarak) ele almak istiyorum.

A. 15 yasının üzerindeki nüfus: 60M (milyon)
B. 15-64 yaşları arasındaki nüfus: 53M (çalışabilecek nüfus)
C. İşgücüne katılım oranı: %57 (yani 53M’un %57’sı işgücüne katılıyor veya katılmak istiyor)
D. İşgücü: 30.5M (=BxC)
E. Çalışan: 27.2M
F. İşsiz: 3.3M (=D-E)
G. İşsizlik oranı: 10.9% (=F/D)

Kanımca ülkedeki işsiz sayısı yukarıda verilen 3.3M’un, işsizlik oranı da %10.9’un üzerinde. Nedenleri:

  • İşgücü hesaplanırken işgücüne katılım oranı kritik bir rol oynuyor. İşgücüne katılım için OECD ortalaması %71 iken ülkemizde %57. İşgücüne katılım oranımızın OECD ortalamasına yaklaşması durumunda iş arayan sayısı ciddi olarak yükseleceğinden, işsiz sayısının ve işsizlik oranının şimdiki istatistiklerin çok üzerine çıkması şaşırtıcı olmayacaktır.
  • Yukarıdaki 3.3M’luk işsiz grubunun içinde ülkemizdeki “gizli” işsizler, yani yılgın umutsuzlar (iş bulmaktan ümidini kesip iş aramayı bırakanlar); eksik veya yetersiz istihdam edilenler (örneğin mühendislik okuyup teknisyenlik yapanlar, siyaset bilimi okuyup sekreterlik yapanlar) ve iş bulamayıp aile işine destek vermeye karar verenler bulunmamaktadır.
  • Ülkemizde işgücüne katılım oranının düşük olmasının nedeni düşük kadın istihdamıdır. OECD’de kadınların işgücüne katılımı erkekler ile neredeyse aynı iken, ülkemizde bu oran sadece %36’dir. Bu oranın son yıllarda yükseldiğini gözlemliyoruz ama daha gidecek çok yolumuz vardır.
  • TUİK’in 3.3M olarak hesapladığı işsiz sayısını, DİSK -muhtemelen yukarıdaki faktörleri de göz önünde bulundurarak- 6.5M olarak tahmin etmektedir.

Yıllardır ülkemizde genç işsizliği oranı genel işsizlik oranından yüksek. Genç işsizliğine kısaca göz atalım:

  • Şu anda üniversite mezunu işsiz sayısı 982,000.
  • Bu rakam son iki yılda %35 arttı.
  • Genç işsizliğinin artmasının temel nedeni ekonomideki yavaşlama. Şirketler alımı yavaşlatınca ya da durdurunca bundan en çok gençler etkileniyor. Özellikle genç istihdamının çok yaygın olduğu turizmdeki ciddi gerileme genç istihdamını çok olumsuz etkiledi.
  • İkinci bir sorun ise eşleştirme: mezunların bilgi ve becerileri ile sektörlerin aradıkları örtüşmüyor.
  • Biz işsizlikten şikayet ederken birçok pozisyon da boş kalıyor.

Peki genç işsizliğinin geleceği?

  • Şu anki 30.5M’luk işgücünün 6.5M’u üniversite mezunu. Üniversite öğrencisi sayımız ise 6M. Mükerrer sayımı göz önüne alsak bile önümüzdeki 5 yıl içinde işgücündeki üniversite mezunu sayısının %50 civarında artacağını öngörebiliriz. İşsiz üniversite mezunu sayısının hızla artması şaşırtıcı olmamalı.
  • Üniversite sayılarını ve kontenjanlarını artırmak istihdam sorunu öteledi. Şu anda üniversite kapısında bekleyen aday öğrenci çok azaldı, fakat diplomalı işsiz sayısı hızla artıyor. YÖK ve üniversiteler kontenjan belirlerken ülkenin ihtiyaçlarını göz önünde bulundurmuyor. Örneğin, ülkenin yılda 100,000’e yakın yeni mezun mühendisi istihdam etme kapasitesi yok, fakat 4,000 yeni mezun İngilizce öğretmeni gerekenin çok altında.
  • Şu anda eğitimde, stajda ve işte olmayan genç oranımız %22. Yani o çok övündüğümüz genç nüfusun önemli bir kısmının işsiz kalma ihtimali çok yüksek. Genç yaşta işsiz olan bir bireyin ilerleyen yıllarda da işsiz kalma ihtimali yüksek.
  • Ülkemizde üniversite çağında 500,000 Suriyeli mülteci bulunuyor ve bunların çok azı (10,000’in altında) üniversiteye erişebiliyor.
  • Ülkenin nüfus piramidine baktığımızda, 55-59 yaş grubundaki 3.2M’a karşılık, 15-19 yaş grubunda 6.8M’lük bir nüfus görüyoruz. Yani önümüzdeki yıllarda emekli olacakların sayısının iki misli sayıda bir genç kitlesi, iş kapısında olacak. Yılda 750,000 civarında net yeni istihdam yaratamaz isek, işsizlik oranı (ve özellikle genç işsizliği) artmaya devam edecek.

Bu sorunu nasıl çözeceğiz?

  • İşsizlik sorunun çözümü için önce istihdam yaratmak, sonra da günümüz iş dünyasının hedeflediği bilgi, birikim ve becerilere sahip mezunlar vermek gerekiyor.
  • Ekonomistlerin öngörüsü, Türkiye’nin işsizlik oranını sabit tutabilecek büyüme oranının %4 civarında olduğu yönünde. Geçmişte bu oranı tutturduğumuz hatta geçtiğimiz yıllar oldu, fakat son yıllarda bu oranın altında kalmaya başladık.
  • İstihdam sorunu için en güçlü çözüm girişimcilik. Bu konuda devletin ne yapması gerektiğini başka yazılarımda yazmıştım. Ne yazık ki yapılabilecek şeylerin çok azı yapıldı. Burada kısaca özetlemek isterim:
    • Girişimcilik Bakanlığı (veya Müsteşarlığı), Girişimcilik Üniversitesi ve bir “Girişimcilik Parkı” ağı kurulmalı
    • Üniversite mezunlarına teknik eğitim seferberliği planlanmalı (özellikle kodlama, büyük veri analizi ve yapay zeka konularında)
    • Üniversite mezunlarının 21. yüzyıl yetkinliklerinin geliştirilmesi için yurt çapında farklı bölgelerde kamplar kurgulanması gerek
    • Lise ve üniversite öğrencileri için “Beyaz Yaka İş Kur”u kurulmalı (kariyer planlama, sektörel eğitim, stajlar ve profesyonel gelişim eğitimleri)
  • Girişimciliği tetikleyebilmek için eğitim sisteminde ciddi bir değişim gerekiyor. Üniversitelerin en azından bir kısmının kendilerini “Girişimci Üniversite” olarak konumlandırması gerekli. Girişimci Üniversitenin nasıl olması gerektiğini bloğumda oldukça detaylı yazmıştım.

Üniversite adayı veya öğrencisi ne yapsın?

  • Üniversite veya programı gözünüzde büyütmeyin, tek çıkış yolu olarak görmeyin. Kariyerinizi planlamak ve gelecekte fark yaratarak mutlu olabilmek için gereken donanımı edinmek sizin göreviniz.
  • Üniversitelerin verdiği içerik ile yetinmeyin. Sürekli öğrenin. Unutmayın ki, üniversite müfredatının çağı yakalaması çok zor. Dünya çok hızlı değişiyor ve üniversiteler çok yavaş hareket ediyor.
  • Her fırsatta staj yapın ve çalışın. Mezun olmadan önce 3-4 stajınız olsun.
  • İngilizceyi olabildiğince iyi öğrenin. Artık İngilizce “yabancı dil” değil, dünya dili. Bunun yanına bir yabancı dil koymaya çalışın (Rusça, Çince veya Arapça öneriyorum).
  • Mutlaka ders dışı etkinliklere katılın. Öğrenci kulüpleri, spor takımları, konferanslar, geziler çok değerli fırsatlar sunar.
  • Mutlaka anlamlı bir yurtdışı deneyimi kurgulayın.
  • Gelecekte ne olacağını kestirmek zor ama her şeyin içinde teknolojinin olacağını kestirmek kolay. Teknoloji okuryazarı olun. En az bir kodlama dili öğrenin.

Kariyer planlama ve geleceğe hazırlanma konusunda yazdığım blog yazılarını veya yazıların birçoğunu güncelleştirip bir araya getirdiğim “Üniversite Seçerken” kitabını okuyun. ”

 

Yazının pdf versiyonuna ulaşmak için tıklayın: Genc-Issizligi

Kaynak: http://erhanerkut.com/analiz/genc-issizligi/

Ahmet Doğan
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Ahmet Doğan

Araştırmacı - Yazar
Elektrik - Elektronik Mühendisliğinden 2014'te mezun oldu. Aynı alanda Yüksek Lisans eğitimine devam ederken, aynı zamanda ULUSLARARASI İLİŞKİLER lisans bölümünü okumaktadır. İnsan Hakları alanında ve Mülteci alanında Uluslararası bir Sivil Toplum Kuruluşunda çalışmaktadır.
Ahmet Doğan
Follow Me

Ahmet Doğan

Araştırmacı - Yazar Elektrik - Elektronik Mühendisliğinden 2014'te mezun oldu. Aynı alanda Yüksek Lisans eğitimine devam ederken, aynı zamanda ULUSLARARASI İLİŞKİLER lisans bölümünü okumaktadır. İnsan Hakları alanında ve Mülteci alanında Uluslararası bir Sivil Toplum Kuruluşunda çalışmaktadır.

Genç İşsizliği” için 130 yorum

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  • 22 Haziran 2018 tarihinde, saat 13:22
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  • 1 Temmuz 2018 tarihinde, saat 01:38
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  • 2 Temmuz 2018 tarihinde, saat 11:15
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  • 9 Temmuz 2018 tarihinde, saat 00:08
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  • 28 Temmuz 2018 tarihinde, saat 21:05
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  • 29 Temmuz 2018 tarihinde, saat 04:24
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  • 30 Temmuz 2018 tarihinde, saat 07:23
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  • 31 Temmuz 2018 tarihinde, saat 23:03
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  • 1 Ağustos 2018 tarihinde, saat 05:44
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  • 5 Ağustos 2018 tarihinde, saat 06:36
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  • 5 Ağustos 2018 tarihinde, saat 16:27
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