Prof. Dr. Erhan Erkut, 2017 Eğitim Panoraması’nı Yazdı

Prof. Dr. Erhan Erkut, kendi internet sitesinde 2017 yılının Türkiye eğitim durumunu analiz etti. Erkut’un yazdığı analizin tamamı şöyle:

2017 ülkemizde eğitim yönünden dolu dolu geçen bir yıl oldu. Bir radyo istasyonu geçtiğimiz hafta benden eğitimde 2017’nin panoramasını istediğinde çıkardığım özeti buradan da paylaşmak istedim.  3 sayfalık pdf: 2017edpan

1)  PISA’da sınıfta kaldık

2015 PISA sınavı sonuçları 2016’nın sonunda açıklandı ve 2017’nin ilk aylarında üzerinde epey konuşuldu. Aldığımız sonuçlar PISA tarihimizin en kötü sonuçları idi. Puanlar beklenenin 40-60 puan altında kaldı. 2012 sonuçlarına kıyasla OECD ülkeleri arasında fen ve okuma puanları en çok, matematik puanı da ikinci en çok düşen ülke Türkiye oldu. Puanların düşmesinden daha kaygı verici olan sonuç ise puanların dağılımı oldu. Fen sınavında en üst iki düzeyden birisine çıkabilen (yani geleceğin bilim insanı, mühendisi, tekno-girişimcisi olma potansiyeline sahip) öğrenci oranımız altıda birine düştü, Fen okuryazarı olmayan öğrenci oranımız ise %26’dan %45’e çıktı. Bu sonuçlara göre ülkemizdeki 15 yaş grubunun neredeyse üçte biri hem fen hem matematik hem de okumada temel okuryazarlık seviyesinin altında.

Bu sonuçlara bakıp da ortada çok ciddi bir sorun olduğunu düşünmemek imkansız.  Okul türlerine göre alınan ortalama puanlara bakıldığında ülke puanını aşağıya çeken iki büyük okul grubunun Mesleki ve Teknik Liseler ile İmam Hatip Liseleri olduğu görülüyor. Kanımca 2015 sonuçları bir istatistiki tesadüf değil ve gerçekten de ülkenin eğitim sisteminin durumunu yansıtıyor. 2018 ve 2021 sonuçlarının daha da kötü olma ihtimali büyük, çünkü:

  • Zenginleşme sürecimizde 8 yıldır bir duraksama yaşıyoruz.
  • Okullaşma oranımızın artmasıyla birlikte lise okumak istemeyen öğrencilerin daha fazlasını sistemin içinde tutacağız.
  • 4+4+4’un olumsuz etkisini görmeye başlayacağız.
  • İhraç edilen çok sayıda öğretmen ve rotasyon uygulamalarının olumsuz sonuçlarını göreceğiz.
  • Daha fazla imam-hatip öğrencisi PISA sınavına girecek ve bu okullar şimdiye kadar akademik başarı göstermekte zorlandılar.

MEB durumun vahametini kavramış gibi görünmüyor ve eğitimde yanlış adımlar atmaya devam ediyor. Bu konuda yazdığım detaylı blog yazısına şuradan ulaşabilirsiniz: http://erhanerkut.com/egitim/pisadaki-dusus-devam-edebilir/

Yılın sonuna doğru açıklanan PISA birlikte problem çözme sınavında ise öğrencilerimiz hem OECD’de sonuncu olarak hem de bireysel puan seviyelerinin bile altına düşerek takım çalışması ve birlikte başarmak konusunda ne kadar geri olduğumuzu teyit ettiler. Bunun yanında, 2018 yılında yapılacak olan PISA sınavında kültürel hoşgörü, küresel ısınma ve medya üzerinden algı operasyonu konularının da sınava dahil edileceği duyuruldu; müfredatımıza ve sistemimize bakılırsa bu alanlarda öğrencilerimizin başarılı olmasını beklemek zor.

 

2)  Üniversite doluluk oranı düştü

Ek yerleştirme sonrası üniversitelerimizde lisans programlarında 111,000, önlisans programlarında ise 211,000 kontenjan boş kaldı. Bu rekor seviyedeki boşluğun nedenleri olarak uzmanlar meslek liselerinden üniversiteye doğrudan geçişin kaldırılmış olmasını (ve adayların nasıl tercih yapacaklarını bilememesini), açıköğretime YGS yerine LYS ile geçilmesini ve bazı programların puan türlerinin değiştirilmiş olmasını öne sürdüler. Ben bu açıklamaları eğitimi sistemimizin performansı açısından epey rahatsız edici buldum: Meslek lisesi mezunlarına bir yıl boyunca tercih yapma konusunda yeterli bilgi verememişiz, açıköğretimde okumak isteyen öğrenciler LYS’de barajı geçememişler ve öğrencilerimiz puan türü değişikliği ile bile baş edemiyorlar. Bu nedenlerin yanında kanımca 3 neden daha var:

  • Üniversiteler ciddi bir istihdam planı yapmaksızın hesapsız bir şekilde kontenjanlarını artırmayı sürdürdüler.
  • Özellikle en başarılı liselerin mezunları daha yüksek oranlarda yurt dışını tercih etmeye başladılar.
  • Toplum üniversitelerden ümit kesmeye başladı—herhangi bir üniversitenin herhangi bir bölümünden mezun olmanın hiçbir işe yaramadığı görüşü ağırlık kazanmaya başladı.

Tahminim, 2018 yılında doluluk oranlarının artacağı yönünde. Eğer oranlar düşük kalırsa vakıf üniversitelerinin bazılarını ekonomik yönden zor günler bekliyor.

3) Ortaöğretimde müfredat yine/yeniden değişti

Son müfredat değişikliğinde kamuoyunda en tartışmalı konu evrimin müfredattan çıkarılması ve cihatın müfredata girmesi oldu ise de “değerler bazlı” bir eğitime geçilmesi de (özellikle değerler listesine göz atılırsa) önemli. Eğitimde bilim yerine dinin ağırlığının arttığını gözlemlemek zor değil. Bakanlık öğrencilerin evrimi bir üst seviyede öğrenebileceğini belirtti. Fakat birçok gelişmiş ülkede evrim lise müfredatının bir parçası. Ayrıca aldığımız duyumlara göre üniversitelerin moleküler genetik ve biyoloji programlarında bile evrimden artık pek söz edilemiyor. Anlaşılan eğitim sistemimizi yönetenler, bilim ve teknolojide ileri olan ülkelerin tümünün yanlış yaptığını düşünüyor ve evrimsiz bir eğitim hedefliyorlar—tabii bu sırada evrim çok ağır bir şekilde de olsa sürmeye devam ediyor. Bilim ve gerçek, bizlerin inanıp inanmadığımız ile ilgilenmez.

MEB son müfredat değişikliğini en katılımcı müfredat değişikliği olarak niteliyor, çünkü 200,000’e yakın görüş alınmış. Ülkede ortalama eğitimin 6.5 yıl olduğunu düşünürsek, müfredat hakkında velilere görüş sorulmasının mantığını anlamak zor. Esas soru sorulması gereken gruplar ortaöğretim mezunları ile çalışan gruplar, yani işverenler ve üniversiteler olmalı idi. Bakanlığın “askıya çıkardık” veya “üniversitelere yolladık” söylemlerini ciddiye almak oldukça zor. İstediğiniz şeyi istediğiniz süre askıda tutabilirsiniz. Esas soru gelen geri bildirimler ile ne yaptığınızdır. Üniversitelere uygulamaya hazır bir müfredat gönderirseniz, zaman harcayıp geri bildirimde bulunmalarını beklememek gerekir. Üniversitelerden katkı isteniyorsa, sürece en başında dahil edilmeleri gerekirdi.

Kanımca yeni müfredatın en önemli eksikliği, 21. yüzyıl yetkinliklerini neredeyse tümüyle ıskalamış olmasıdır (21. YY. yetkinlikleri hakkında detaylı bilgi için http://erhanerkut.com/21-yy-yetkinlikleri/21-yuzyil-yetkinlikleri-sorun/). Ayrıca, tüm dünyada eğitim kişiselleşirken, en başarılı ülkeler öğretmenlere ve yerel yönetimlere daha fazla otonomi verirken, merkezden dikte edilen tek tip bir müfredat ne kadar iyi olursa olsun istenilen olumlu etkiyi yaratamaz.

4)   TEOG kalktı

Sayın Cumhurbaşkanı’nın TEOG’u beğenmediğini ifadesinden 84 saat sonra liselere geçiş sınavı olan TEOG kaldırıldı, fakat yerine ne konacağının açıklanması bir aydan fazla bir zaman aldı. Bu trajikomik gelişme ülkemizde eğitimin nasıl yönetildiğini net olarak gözler önüne sermesi açısında belki de “yılın eğitim olayı” idi. Kendi yarattığı kaosu yatıştırmaya çalışırken bakanlık büyük bir pot kırdı ve 600 “nitelikli” okula sınav ile öğrenci alınacağını açıkladı ki bu nitelikli okulların listesini hala bekliyoruz. Bu sınava girmeyen veya girip de başarılı olamayan öğrencilerin adrese ve tercihe dayalı olarak yerleştirileceği açıklandı. Kanımca bakanlık bu yerleştirme işinin ne kadar karmaşık olduğunun bilincine henüz varmadı; maalesef 2018 yılının lise yerleştirmeleri epey kaotik olabilir ve çok sayıda itiraz getirebilir. Deneme-yanılma ile öğrenmeye alışmış eğitim sistemimiz için bile bu büyük bir deney olacak.

5)  YGS/LYS kalktı

Liseye girişten az sonra üniversiteye girişin de değişeceği haberleri geldi. Fakat YÖK süreci başarılı bir şekilde yönetti ve basitleştirilmiş bir sınav sistemi getirdi. İki basamaklı sınav yerine tek basamaklı (iki günlük) bir sınav olacak ve sınavdaki puan türlerinin sayısı azaltıldı.  (Adayların tercihlerde zorlanmaması için birleştirilen puan türlerinde barajların durumunun üzerinde biraz daha çalışılması gerekebilir.)  Her sistem ve değişiklik eleştirilebilir, fakat 2018 üniversite yerleştirme sisteminde ciddi bir sorun öngörmüyorum hatta öğrencilerin ve ailelerinin yeni sistem ile daha rahat tercih yapacağını düşünüyorum. Kanımca lise ve üniversite sınavlarının değişmesi sinyaline karşılık MEB ve YÖK’ün verdiği tepkiler ve sonuçları kriz yönetimi vaka çalışması olarak üniversitelerde okutulabilir.

6) Temel liselerin sonu göründü

Dershaneden bozma olan “temel liseler” 2018 yılında son defa öğrenci alacaklar. Şu anda 11. ve 12. sınıflarda olan öğrencileri mezun edebilecekler, fakat 9 ve 10. sınıflarda olan öğrencilere ne olacağı meçhul. Eğer temel liselerin ömrü uzatılmaz ise, lise eğitiminin ortasındaki birçok öğrenci okul değiştirmek zorunda kalacak. Fakat sürekli değişikliğe alışmış olan toplumumuzun bu sorunun da üstesinden geleceğine eminim.

7) THE sıralamasında küme düştük

Times Higher Education’ın (THE) dünya üniversiteleri sıralamalarında ilk 200’e, 2015’te Türkiye’den 4 üniversite girmişti. Son sıralamada ise bırakın ilk 200’u, ilk 300’e giren üniversitemiz bile yok. 2015 sıralamasından 2016’ya geçerken üniversitelerimizin sıralamada radikal olarak aşağılara düşmesinin nedeni sıralama metodolojisinin değiştirilmesi idi (farklı veri tabanı kullanımı ve çok yazarlı yayınların sayılmaması). THE’nin kriterlerine ve üniversitelerimizin performansına dikkatle bakıldığında, 2016-2018 arasında üniversitelerimizin puanlarının az da olsa yükseldiğini gözlemliyoruz. Buna rağmen sıralamalardaki düşüşün temel nedeni sıralamaya daha fazla üniversitenin dahil edilmesi (yani geçmişteki yüksek sıralamaların aslında kısmen geçersiz olması) ve bazı Asya ülkelerinin dünya çapında üniversite kurmak için özel devlet fonları oluşturmuş olması (ve bizim bu yarışa dahil olamayışımız).

Bundan sonraki sıralamalarda üniversitelerimizin biraz daha yukarıya çıkmaları sürpriz olmaz. Fakat üniversitelerimizin kısa vadede daha yukarılara çıkmaları oldukça zor görünüyor. Özellikle ilk 100’de üniversitemiz olmasını istiyor isek, uzun vadeli bir plan çerçevesinde ciddi bir kaynağı harekete geçirmemiz gerekir (Bu konuda daha detaylı bilgi için: http://erhanerkut.com/analiz/the-siralamalarinda-universitelerimiz/). Yeni açıklanan “araştırma üniversitesi” sınıflandırmasının bu amaca hizmet edip etmeyeceğini yaşayıp göreceğiz.

8)  Genç işsizliği rekor kırdı

2017 yılında toplam işsiz sayısı 3,5 Milyonu görürken, üniversite mezunu işsiz sayısı ise 1 milyonu ve genç işsizliği %20’yi geçti. İşsiz mezun sayısı son iki yılda %35 arttı. Genç işsizliğinin artmasının temel nedeni ekonomideki yavaşlama: Şirketler alımı yavaşlatınca ya da durdurunca bundan en çok gençler etkileniyor. İkinci bir sorun ise eşleştirme: Mezunların bilgi ve becerileri ile sektörlerin aradıkları örtüşmüyor—gençler işsizlikten şikâyet ederken birçok pozisyon da boş kalıyor.

Üniversite öğrencisi sayımızın 7 milyon olduğu düşünülürse, önümüzdeki 5 yıl içinde çok sayıda yeni mezunun işgücüne katılacağını ve işsiz üniversite mezunu sayısının da artacağını öngörmek zor değil. Üniversite sayıları ve kontenjanları ülkenin istihdam kapasitesinin epey üzerinde. Bunun yanında ülkemizde üniversite çağında 500,000 Suriyeli mülteci bulunuyor ve bunların çok azı üniversiteye erişebiliyor. Yılda 750,000 civarında net yeni istihdam yaratamaz isek, işsizlik oranı (ve özellikle genç işsizliği) artmaya devam edecek. Çözüm önerileri de içeren daha detaylı bir yazı: http://erhanerkut.com/analiz/genc-issizligi

 

Yazan: Prof. Dr. Erhan Erkut

 

Ahmet Doğan
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Ahmet Doğan

Araştırmacı - Yazar
Elektrik - Elektronik Mühendisliğinden 2014'te mezun oldu. Aynı alanda Yüksek Lisans eğitimine devam ederken, aynı zamanda ULUSLARARASI İLİŞKİLER lisans bölümünü okumaktadır. İnsan Hakları alanında ve Mülteci alanında Uluslararası bir Sivil Toplum Kuruluşunda çalışmaktadır.
Ahmet Doğan
Follow Me

Ahmet Doğan

Araştırmacı - Yazar Elektrik - Elektronik Mühendisliğinden 2014'te mezun oldu. Aynı alanda Yüksek Lisans eğitimine devam ederken, aynı zamanda ULUSLARARASI İLİŞKİLER lisans bölümünü okumaktadır. İnsan Hakları alanında ve Mülteci alanında Uluslararası bir Sivil Toplum Kuruluşunda çalışmaktadır.

Prof. Dr. Erhan Erkut, 2017 Eğitim Panoraması’nı Yazdı” için 148 yorum

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  • 14 Haziran 2018 tarihinde, saat 05:56
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  • 24 Haziran 2018 tarihinde, saat 23:00
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  • 25 Haziran 2018 tarihinde, saat 11:31
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  • 26 Haziran 2018 tarihinde, saat 01:08
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